Summary, 17 Nov 2005
Hey all, well this has been our first week of Live trade announcements, and all in all it has been a profitable week with a day to go. I must admit it does add some pressure to my trading, as I don't want to mislead anyone, but, in the end it is everyone's independant decision to take or leave any trades I am posting.
Yesterday was a dissapointing day on the markets for me personally, with a combination of a poor mindset, along with some bad luck (if there is such thing in trading) resulting in a small loss. It could have been much worse if Lachlan had not woken up, getting me up at 4am and catching a set-up on the USD/JPY for 28 pips.
One of my more confusing trades for some yesterday is the one shown below on the USD/CHF, unfortunately I was too tired to stay online and explain my trade, so I thought I'd run you through why I took what looked like (and probably was) a quite risky trade (and a losing one in the end):
The trade was on the USD/CHF early in the US session yesterday. You can see that the price action had been contained in a strong upward channel over the last few days. I made a live call to go short at the bottom of the channel, despite the channel not yet being broken. So the questions was asked, why, oh why would you be so silly to such a thing. Well the answer is, because I probably am silly, but let's look at my reasons.
First thing I have labelled there is a double top that was formed after the last bounce from the lower channel line. This gave me a small hint thing might be stalling. Second, and the deciding factor for me, was the very weak bounce of the lower channel line just before I entered the trade. I viewed this as a last effort by the bulls, and so opened a short the next touch of the lower channel.
Now because of my small account size and tight money management policy, my stoploss was placed just above that last peak, and in the end, a quick spike took my stop loss, before a sharp drop as expected. Now rather than blubbering in the corner (although it can help believe me ;)) at the missed trade, I am more pleased with the fact my analysis was correct, there have been plenty of times in the past after all where I have made a trade by the smallest of margins, so I have to accept the good with the bad.
As a side note, you can see the price move down has stalled at Wednesday's low, so we would want to see this broken to confirm a continuation of the move and a possible change in trend. I will continue next week hanging around the Australia channel so pop in and say hello. Oh and please excuse my continual braggin about Australia making the World Cup!
Happy trading!
Yesterday was a dissapointing day on the markets for me personally, with a combination of a poor mindset, along with some bad luck (if there is such thing in trading) resulting in a small loss. It could have been much worse if Lachlan had not woken up, getting me up at 4am and catching a set-up on the USD/JPY for 28 pips.
One of my more confusing trades for some yesterday is the one shown below on the USD/CHF, unfortunately I was too tired to stay online and explain my trade, so I thought I'd run you through why I took what looked like (and probably was) a quite risky trade (and a losing one in the end):
The trade was on the USD/CHF early in the US session yesterday. You can see that the price action had been contained in a strong upward channel over the last few days. I made a live call to go short at the bottom of the channel, despite the channel not yet being broken. So the questions was asked, why, oh why would you be so silly to such a thing. Well the answer is, because I probably am silly, but let's look at my reasons.
First thing I have labelled there is a double top that was formed after the last bounce from the lower channel line. This gave me a small hint thing might be stalling. Second, and the deciding factor for me, was the very weak bounce of the lower channel line just before I entered the trade. I viewed this as a last effort by the bulls, and so opened a short the next touch of the lower channel.
Now because of my small account size and tight money management policy, my stoploss was placed just above that last peak, and in the end, a quick spike took my stop loss, before a sharp drop as expected. Now rather than blubbering in the corner (although it can help believe me ;)) at the missed trade, I am more pleased with the fact my analysis was correct, there have been plenty of times in the past after all where I have made a trade by the smallest of margins, so I have to accept the good with the bad.
As a side note, you can see the price move down has stalled at Wednesday's low, so we would want to see this broken to confirm a continuation of the move and a possible change in trend. I will continue next week hanging around the Australia channel so pop in and say hello. Oh and please excuse my continual braggin about Australia making the World Cup!
Happy trading!
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on Friday, November 18, 2005 at 10:44:00 AM.
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